In 2016, I was convinced Hillary Clinton would win. Her losing forced on some needed humility about my perspective on politics. Now I’m routinely accused of saying Donald Trump will lose or of betraying my values by saying I’d vote for the guy. There’s not really any winning, or even fun to be had, by doing what I perceive as calling balls and strikes. But I want to do that anyway and give you my honest take on all of this.
In 2016, I relied mostly on myself to get a sense of things. Over the past few years, I’ve spent a lot more time talking to other people actively involved in campaigns, from the presidential level to state races, to help shape my view of the race and where things stand.
Based on these conversations, I think there is a lot of muddiness and there are a lot of unknowns but we can also paint a bit of a picture of the race to get a sense of it.
For example, it is not really disputed at this point that the President has more enthusiasm from his voters than Joe Biden. The President’s voters are more fired up. You don’t see Biden’s supporters doing boat parades.
The President’s team is also going door to door, while Biden’s team is not, though in some states, I am told there has been a falloff in volunteers over the past month in both door-to-door efforts and phone banking. But they’re still doing it.
At the same time, women, including registered Republican women and some who voted for Trump in 2016, have turned more antagonistic to the President over the course of just this year, and there is some evidence they are turning against the GOP as a whole.
Concurrently, the President's message has found a home in the Hispanic community at strengths no Republican has seen. The message has penetrated in ways other Republicans have failed to achieve. Likewise, a portion of Black male voters are connecting to the President's message.
While that is happening, senior citizens are drifting away from the President, particularly in the northern states. Additionally, voters who voted for Barack Obama and then Trump appear to be going to Biden now.
Lastly, Democrats have requested more absentee ballots than Republicans this time, but that may be because of a proactive approach to avoiding in-person voting on Election Day due to the virus and not a surge of voter enthusiasm.
All of this raises important questions for the state of play.
First, do the gains from some of the new groups of voters offset the further drift of women, seniors and Obama-Trump voters?
Second, with no major third party or independent candidates such as Gary Johnson, Jill Stein or Evan McMullin, where do the voters who voted for them go? I would think most would not go to Trump, but do they go to Biden?
Third, Trump won with approximately 70,000 votes spread across Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all three of which drifted decisively to the left in 2018 with near presidential-level turnout. Is the President able to offset or gain those votes -- or will he lose them?
Fourth, are Trump voters not being picked up in the polling? Perhaps, but given how enthusiastic the President's supporters are, doesn't that suggest the "shy Trump voter" phenomenon is now overstated?
I understand why Trump's supporters are confident he will win. People like me were wrong in 2016, and they have internalized a belief that polls are wrong. There is actually a lot of evidence that many Trump supporters are in as much of a bubble as anti-Trump voters are, in terms of media outlets, social media, etc.
The polling could be wrong. There's a lot we don't know. But there is also a growing sense among Republican strategists on the ground that something has shifted in Biden's direction. That's not to say it cannot shift back. Looking at 2016 compared with 2020, Biden is only slightly ahead of Clinton in multiple states that went for Trump, and it was Oct. 7, 2016, when the "Access Hollywood" tape dropped. The race is still in play.
10 thoughts on “Less Than a Month To Go”
You and your Demscum communist perverts are no longer considered ether human or relevant in any subject , as a self professed journalist you rate less than covid in the minds of real humans!
Democrats are the slime that belong in landfills bull dozed into giant holes and covered with patriots excrement!
All democrats their media their businesses and their lives will be silenced by a complete boycott of all you represent!
America will show democrats at the poles what shit you are, and your media , politicians and fbi will rot in jail for the rest of your ignorant moronic worthless lives!
Ther is no place for any democrat in America and for your complicity to your vial coup and your unwillingness to except the results of the 2016 election , America will seize or destroy everything democrats are !
It is an insult to the devil to compare democrats to the sweat that drips from his balls!!!!!!!!!!!!
It is easy to determine every word from every democrats mouth is a lie for you commit a crime and immediately blame your vial actions on others!
Democrats are the stupid ones for you actually think humans believe your lies !
You’re being too kind. Dems are nothing but little bobbing dots at 200 meters.
Steve, you speak with wise tongue, Grasshopper!!! We are going to keep our Country, our Constitution, our way of life… TRUMP will continue to not only MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, but KEEP AMERICA GREAT!!! The DEMS are not well and every time they open up their mouths, IT’S A LIE. They BLAME the Republican’s of doing everything they are doing and/or have done. TRUMP 2020!!!
ave played your poll games/ until Oct. 5th I said Biden or unsure. That was to screw your dumb polls. I AM 4 TRUMP & ALWAYS HAVE BEEN! It was 1 way of getting back @ FAKE NBEWS!
I can’t understand how the senior voters are changing their minds! I’m 85 and I want the America I grew up in! That certainly won’t happen in a Bidden win. That is Socialism! Tell me where that has worked???
It NEVER WORKED in history. Socialism/Communism were developed by the Globalists to take down governments in the world, all of which are a competition/niusance to the Globalists who want us to all be their slaves and they the “elite”. THAT is falling apart miserably, we know who and what they are, and do NOT want immorality and pederasty being put over on us by these weak witling Lucifer-lovers that think they are our superiors, no less! One HUGE error they made, was when they decided that Psychopathy was a POWER for them, but it is why they are imploding fast now.
There was no way I was going to vote for Hillary. Trump on the other hand was a very smart deal maker. He made and lost millions maybe billions but always came back. That was who we needed to straighten out what the Obama 8 years did to our once wonderful country. I may not like his ego, his bluster, all the social media BS but I sure like the fact that even though the Left has been screwing with him since before the 2016 elections he has made a lot of good deals for America and lots of the World has gotten better in some cases and in some countries have started to pay their fair share.
Bravo, Mister President.
God bless America.
Shove a poll up their ass and VOTE for Donald J. Trump and the Republican ticket. Get rid of the TURDS that call themselves democrats. We are a REPUBLIC so Vote for our Constitution and the man that will stand up for it. We don’t and can’t stand by Biden and Kamala the Communist Party. If you want communism move to China or even closer move to Cuba. We don’t need the TRASH that kamala and sleazy joe want to give us.
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